Statistics Probability Odds Probability

Finding the odds
Free download. Book file PDF easily for everyone and every device. You can download and read online Statistics Probability Odds Probability file PDF Book only if you are registered here. And also you can download or read online all Book PDF file that related with Statistics Probability Odds Probability book. Happy reading Statistics Probability Odds Probability Bookeveryone. Download file Free Book PDF Statistics Probability Odds Probability at Complete PDF Library. This Book have some digital formats such us :paperbook, ebook, kindle, epub, fb2 and another formats. Here is The CompletePDF Book Library. It's free to register here to get Book file PDF Statistics Probability Odds Probability Pocket Guide. I do not know if this interpretation would be correct. So, any guidance and more examples on interpreting odds would be greatly appreciated.

On another thread there is a much broader answer by gung that also deals with related technical issues such as the odds ratio, but I am going to stick to the topic at hand: As a beginner's question, it's worth thinking how "odds" are expressed in everyday speech especially in betting parlance as well as what odds mean to a statistician, because discrepancies between the two are problematic for learners. For odds as expressed by a statistician , your contention is correct.

The probability that the selected token is aquamarine is 3 out of 4, i. More generally, you could take the fraction of "favourable outcomes over unfavourable outcomes" and cancel divide both numerator and denominator by the total number of outcomes, to obtain "the probability of a favourable outcome over the probability of an unfavourable outcome", from which a little algebra gives:.

Odds as expressed by a bookmaker are usually quoted either as "odds against" or "odds on", and which way they are written seems to be a common cause of confusion.

Explore the Knowledgebase

So far, so little discrepancy: Consider a race in which all four horses let's say F oinavon , G regalach , M on Mome and T ipperary Tim are equally likely to win: What would the fair odds be for a bet on, say, Foinavon? Sadly, "odds against" the usual form of odds does not correspond to a statistician's "odds in favour". If any layperson in your audience comes from a country where fractional odds are used by bookmakers, and regularly quoted in the media e.

  • ?
  • The Thompson/Center Contender Pistol: How To Tune, Time, Load, And Shoot For Accuracy.
  • Finding the odds (Pre-Algebra, Probability and statistic) – Mathplanet.
  • Faith and Reason.

I've seen people try this, perhaps in the belief that "the general public is more familiar with odds than probabilities", but statisticians wise to the bookmaker's overround, and who have therefore never placed a bet in their lives, may be caught by surprise that the popular conception of odds is "the wrong way round". Before presenting statistical odds to such an audience, I would at least make them aware of the following points:.

Even this may not be sufficient to avoid confusion. Decimal odds , also known as continental odds or European odds , have become more prevalent in an era of online gambling, especially for in-play betting and betting exchanges where fractional odds are unwieldy for displaying small, rapid changes in implied probabilities.

Probability vs. odds

European odds quote the payout per unit staked, including the return of the stake. You may have noticed that the European odds are the reciprocal of the implied probability of success: European odds have several advantages to the gambler.

Implied Probability in Sports Betting

Small changes to the implied probability work "smoothly" for a decimal whereas the form of a fraction may have to completely change as a different denominator is required. Calculating the payout from a win is as simple as multiplying the stake by the European odds e.

Confidence Intervals

The reciprocal relationship with implied probability is especially useful for spotting "value bets": However, it's harder for a statistician to explain mathematical odds to a layperson accustomed to European odds! Even worse, the numbers are not simply the "wrong way round" but completely misleading: This key conceptual ratio is retained in the moneyline system used in US sports betting, even though it looks more complex at first sight. I appreciate much of this answer has concerned betting and pay-offs rather than statistics, but I've found the everyday usage of "odds" differs so markedly from the statistician's technical definition, that a thorough comparison might address some confusion both of non-technical gamblers, and non-gambling statisticians.

Search Pre-Algebra All courses. Pre-Algebra Introducing Algebra Overview Operations in the correct order Evaluate expressions Identify properties Equations with variables Coordinate system and ordered pairs Inequalities. Pre-Algebra Explore and understand integers Overview Absolute value Adding and subtracting integers Multiplying and dividing with integers.

Your Answer

Pre-Algebra Inequalities and one-step equations Overview Different ways to solve equations Calculating the area and the perimeter Solving inequalities Understanding inequalities and equations. Pre-Algebra Discover fractions and factors Overview Monomials and adding or subtracting polynomials Powers and exponents Multiplying polynomials and binomials Factorization and prime numbers Finding the greatest common factor Finding the least common multiple.

Pre-Algebra More about the four rules of arithmetic Overview Integers and rational numbers Learn how to estimate calculations Calculating with decimals and fractions Geometric sequences of numbers Scientific notation. Pre-Algebra More about equation and inequalities Overview Fundamentals in solving Equations in one or more steps Calculating the circumference of a circle. Pre-Algebra Graphing and functions Overview Linear equations in the coordinate plane The slope of a linear function Graphing linear inequalities Solve systems of equations by graphing.

The explanation for this is that if the outcome being studied is fairly uncommon, then the odds of disease in an exposure group will be similar to the probability of disease in the exposure group. Even worse, the numbers are not simply the "wrong way round" but completely misleading: Another key aspect to computing probability is factoring in the number of opportunities for something to occur. As another example, in rolling two dice there are 36 possible outcomes: Each event is independent and therefore the player can never predict what will come up next.